Strong El Niño could mean a milder, less snowy winter in Northern New York
NOAA forecasters say a strong El Niño is likely through early 2027, raising the possibility of warmer temperatures and less snow in Northern New York while warning that major storms remain possible.
By the ClickNNY North Country Desk
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A strong El Niño is likely to continue through early 2027, potentially bringing warmer temperatures and less snowfall to Northern New York. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there is more than an 83% chance the pattern will remain strong to very strong from January through March, though its effects are not guaranteed.
The center’s October discussion gives a 54% chance that the event will be historic from September through November, an 83% chance from October through December and a 70% chance from November through January. NOAA defines a historic event as one stronger than any El Niño since 1950 under the agency’s preferred measurement.
El Niño develops when equatorial Pacific waters remain warmer than average. That warmth can alter the jet stream and storm tracks. Strong El Niño winters generally trend toward near- or below-average snowfall in the Northeast, while climate outlooks point to above-normal temperatures in Northern New York. The pattern also typically reduces lake-effect snow, which could affect snowfall across Jefferson and Lewis counties, including the Tug Hill.
Historical comparisons show that a milder winter can still include significant storms. Watertown recorded 52.1 inches of snow during the 2015-16 winter, compared with an average of about 112 inches, according to meteorological figures cited in the research. The January 1998 ice storm in the North Country also occurred during a strong El Niño, according to National Weather Service Buffalo meteorologist Matthew Brothers.
The 2023-24 weak El Niño winter brought 71.3 inches of snow in Watertown and temperatures 5.8 degrees above normal, according to a National Weather Service Buffalo summary. Forecasters also caution that a few major snowstorms could account for much of the region’s seasonal total, even if overall conditions are warmer and less snowy.
For residents of Jefferson, Lewis and St. Lawrence counties, Fort Drum, the Thousand Islands and the Tug Hill, the outlook points to a lower likelihood of prolonged cold and frequent lake-effect snow, but it does not eliminate the possibility of dangerous winter travel, ice or major snowstorms.
NOAA’s next ENSO Diagnostic Discussion is scheduled for Nov. 12, 2026. The Climate Prediction Center also issues monthly 30-day and 90-day outlooks in mid-November. Updates are available through NOAA’s ENSO advisory and long-range predictions pages.
Reported by ClickNNY and reviewed by an editor before publication.
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